New Database On Global Value Supply Chains

The European Union has launched the new "World Input-Output Database" which allows trade analysts to assess the global value chains created by world trade. These added-value chains have become an essential feature of economic reality as trade is becoming increasingly globalised as today's traded products are not produced in a single location but rather are the end result of a series of steps carried out in many countries around the world. Instead of counting the gross value of goods and services exchanged, the new database reveals the value added embodied in these goods and services as they are traded internationally. The findings are significant as they change the perception of the competitiveness of certain sectors in some countries. 

In addition, policy makers and societies at large are facing increasingly pressing trade-offs between socio-economic and environmental developments. Increases in production induce growth in the use of non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels, materials, land and water. Furthermore, they generate higher levels of waste and emissions of environmental pollutants. Simultaneously, increasing global integration through international trade and technological developments creates a tension. In this regard, the database considers satellite accounts with environmental and socio-economic indicators, from which industry-level data can provide the necessary input to several types of models used to evaluate policies aimed at striking a suitable balance between growth, environmental degradation and inequality across the world.

Karel De Gucht, the EU commissioner for trade has said that the change in statistical accounting for trade applied in the database has been developed to determine the consequences of the fragmentation of supply chains. For example a third of world trade happens within firms while two thirds of European imports are not of final products but of intermediate goods and raw materials, to which EU firms add one or more layers of value before they are finally sold, often for export.  The EU trade commissioner gave the example of a Nokia smartphone, "it is listed as being made in China, but in reality 54% of its value comes from tasks that are carried out in Europe. Key components are produced in other parts of Asia and only the assembly itself actually happens in China.  Today, we measure trade by counting the total price of the good that is being exported or imported, but because we do this both for components and for final products we get a distorted picture of what is really happening.  Hence according to the database, when we look at trade in value as opposed to traditional statistics, EU trade deficit with China is reduced by 36%. In 2011, the trade deficit between the EU and China stood at EUR155.9 billion however using this new method China-EU deficit starts to look like less of a problem."

On services, interestingly when looking at trade in supply chain terms,  the classic distinction in trade policy between goods and services is increasingly artificial. This is because services represents almost 60% of the value European firms add to the products exported from Europe. 

The database covers 27 EU countries and 13 other major countries in the world for the period from 1995 to 2009. It is notable that not a single African country is included in the database which possibly says something about Africa's non-participation or rather minuscule contribution to global supply chains. In addition, all BRICS economies are included in the database with the notable exception of South Africa.  One wonders why the EU wants African countries to eliminate export taxes (under the EPAs) when in essence the contribution of African exports to global trade and supply chains is too insignificant to be in included in the database.

African countries generally export largely raw materials (e.g fuels, metals) and some agricultural products to the EU and generally lack capacity to add value domestically especially for manufactured products. Other supply capacity barriers to Africa's participation in global value chains include limited foreign ownership and lack of global networks which are a significant factor in characterizing the intensity of global exports but not necessarily for regional exports. The lack of technological advancement is also a significant barrier especially in global exports. Public infrastructure constraints, such as inferior power services and customs delays, seem to have more immediate impacts on regional exports as does customs efficiency and poor trade facilitation which is also hampers the competitive participation of African producers in global supply chain industries. 

In a related article, we saw that China overcame similar challenges by exploiting joint ventures.  China allowed foreign firms access to the domestic market in exchange for technology transfer through joint production or joint ventures. In fact, 100% foreign owned firms were a rarity among the leading players in the industry in China, unlike Export Processing Zones in Africa. China’s openness to foreign investment and its willingness to create Special Economic Zones (SEZs) where foreign producers could operate with good infrastructure and with minimum hassles must therefore receive considerable credit. However if China  welcomed foreign companies, she always did so with the objective of fostering domestic capabilities.

China and EAC Sign Trade and Investment Framework Agreement

The Framework Agreement between EAC and China focuses on the promotion of commodity trade, exchange of visits by business people from EAC and China, co-operation in investment, infrastructure development, human resource development and training. The two sides also created a Joint Committee on Economy, Trade, Investment and Technical Cooperation (JCET) as the implementation framework for the Agreement. 

This is a different type agreement from the EPAs. It focuses on market enabling assistance in areas such as infrastructure development, skills development and private sector engagement. In fact, China has indicated she will provide funding for feasibility studies on roads and infrastructure. The focus on commodity trade also signals willingness to expand agricultural production and processing of agricultural commodities and thereby enhancement of the value chain.

BRICS- SA's Role

Interesting analysis below from the business day. Should note that SA's BRICS membership also adds another dimension to the tripartite  FTA consisting of COMESA-EAC-SADC Member States.

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There is wide consensus that SA’s place in the emerging-market bloc that groups Brazil, Russia, India and China together, is only justified by SA’s strategic importance on the continent.

That means the country needs to tread a careful path between touting its own interests and facilitating links to the rest of Africa.

"It would be in SA’s interest to see this as a bargaining opportunity for the continent rather than just being expedient," said Standard Bank ’s group chief economist, Goolam Ballim. "Otherwise this could be harmful in the longer term for inter- African relationships."

It is a delicate task as SA does not have a mandate at this point to speak for any other African country. Jim O’Neill, the banker from Goldman Sachs who invented the acronym for the first four Bric countries, has said that Nigeria is in a better position to join the grouping.

SA’s economy is only a quarter the size of Russia’s, the next-smallest Brics member, and its share of world trade has been stagnant at 0,5% over the past decade. Its pace of growth also lags well behind the bloc’s other members.

But SA has a lot to offer the group, which analysts say could evolve into a political force rivalling the Group of Seven developed nations, campaigning for the interests of emerging economies. SA has one of the strongest financial sectors in the world, and receives about 95% of Africa’s portfolio inflows — foreign buying of local shares and bonds.

It could provide capital for companies looking to expand into the continent and is rated as the easiest place to open a business among all the other BRICS countries.

That would make it the logical choice for firms to establish their headquarters in SA.

The country is already the services hub for the continent and has significant corporate clout in the global arena.

Where it falls short is on transport infrastructure, both within the country and linked to its African neighbours.

Nonetheless, SA’s place on the continent is seen as key to its debut in the Brics club this week at the meeting at a Chinese resort.

"We are not individually important enough but if we can fill the role of an entry point to Africa, it will be an enormous opportunity," says Absa Capital economist Jeff Gable.

Sub-Saharan Africa has become the second-fastest growing region in the world after Asia and has been more resilient to the global financial crisis then Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. It offers an untapped market of hundreds of millions of people.

Standard Chartered’s regional research head for Africa, Razia Khan, thinks that the summit is unlikely to come up with concrete measures that will immediately affect the Brics economies.

But some analysts are expecting preferential trade agreements and developmental finance deals, given the participation of state-owned financial institutions.

Iraj Abedian, chief economist for Pan African Capital Holdings, hopes that the Brics summit will establish a "credible institution" to underpin its political clout. If that does not happen, it will remain a political multilateral rather than an economic leadership forum, he says.

For another piece on BRICS see here.

BRICS’ to Discuss Economic Coordination

and some politics as well....

Leaders from five of the world’s top emerging economies will discuss a coordinated stance on economic issues such as commodity price fluctuation (however, the yuan’s exchange rate is off the agenda).

The mid-April ‘BRICS’ summit will gather leaders from China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa in the southern Chinese beach resort of Sanya.  The summit will give the world’s big rising economies a venue to coordinate views on global financial reforms, commodity prices and other shared concerns since the BRICS countries have similar concerns on important questions like the global economy, international finance and development, reform of the international currency system, commodity price fluctuations, climate change and sustainable development. 

See full report here.

The Rise of China and Implications for Dominance, Development and Aid

Interesting piece on the Rise of China and Implications for Developing Countries. 

There is a need to digest new avenues of thought such as: "China challenges the pre-existing dominance of the OECD countries (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development)".

On development and aid "the rise of China requires a rethinking of development theory and rethinking of traditional donor practices".

China and the US: The World's Largest Economies

China is expected to surpass the US as the world's largest economy by 2025. This is unsurprising given China has maintained about four times the US growth rate and population, which currently consists of approximately six times the US labour force. Additionally, China's exports to the US already quadruple US exports to China.  China surpassed Japan this year to take its place as the world's second largest economy. 

Click to Enlarge.

 Source: Reuters

South-South trade risks reinforcing Africa's commodity dependence

This is Africa By Peter Guest | Published: 18 June, 2010

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has warned that trade flows between Africa and industrialising players in the “Global South” are currently reinforcing the longstanding trend that sees Africa export unprocessed commodities and import manufactured goods.

In its annual 2010 Economic Development in Africa Report, UNCTAD says that this trend needs to be reversed while the South-South relationship remains in its early stages. Companies and sovereign investors from China, India and Brazil are all investing heavily into Africa across a variety of sectors, but minerals, hydrocarbons and agricultural products continue to attract the most interest. These relationships need to be managed in order that they result in economic diversification in African countries, the report recommends.

Africa’s total merchandise trade with non-African developing countries rose from $97bn in 2004 to $283bn in 2008, the report says. For the first time, trade with this group of countries outstripped trade with the European Union. The number of greenfield foreign investment projects by investors from non-African developing countries was 184 in 2008, compared to 52 in 2004.

Chinese total merchandise trade with Africa increased from $25bn in 2004 to $93bn in 2008, according to the report. Over the same period, the continent’s trade with India increased from $9bn to $31bn and with Brazil from $8bm to $23bn.Aside from the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – relationships between other emerging nations, including South Korea and Turkey, and Africa, look likely to take on greater prominence.

While trade is taking on traditional patterns, foreign direct investment from the rest of the developing world into Africa is, to some extent, having a more positive effect on diversification, according to the report’s author, Charles Gore.

“What you see from the trade flows is that that is reinforcing commodity dependence. What you see from the FDI is a more mixed picture. Some of it is going into extractive industries, but a lot of the new Chinese investment, small and medium enterprises, is actually market-seeking,” Mr Gore says. “That’s tended to have a pattern where they first go in as traders but then they start producing there locally, and now they’re starting to cluster to get the benefits of being located closer to each other.”

Official finance is also following new patterns. The majority of developing world official development assistance is directed to infrastructure, with some, notably that of Brazil, also being used for technology transfer.

China is also becoming the most significant bilateral source of support to African infrastructure and production, rising from $470m in 2001 to $4.5bn in 2007. With a slowdown in growth in the developed world prompting concerns of reductions in Western ODA, these relationships are likely to increase in importance.

The report recommends that African governments play a more active role in managing the support and investment that they are receiving from the Global South. This means that their focus should not be on simply attracting FDI from other developing countries, but on directing investment into sectors which will promote development. “What we emphasise is developmental leadership. I think the approach of the new Southern partners is encouraging this more developmental approach to governance.”

China Reduces Tariffs on Imports from Kenya and Other States

According to the Africa Report, Kenya has now been included in the list of 41 countries enjoying reduced tariffs into China.  Other recipients are largely LDCs as agreed in the 4th Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation- Sharm El Sheikh Action Plan (2010-2012).

BEIJING (Reuters) - China is adding 33 states to the list of developing countries whose goods are largely exempt from import tariffs, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday. It said that from July 1 it would scrap tariffs on about 60 percent of imports from countries on the list, which include Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Mali, Madagascar, the Comoros and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Burundi, Malawi, Mozambique, Benin, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Central African Republic are also on the list. In Asia-Pacific, beneficiaries include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Samoa and Vanuatu. Since 2001, China has had 41 countries on the zero-tariff list.

This is especially interesting especially because Kenya is not an LDC.

Further reports show that China would grant zero tariffs status to 4,762 categories of commodities.  China imports scrap metal, fruits, nuts sisal fibre, row hides and skins, fish, black tea, coffee, and leather wares from Kenya and scrapping tariffs on these produce means their cost will fall in China by between three to 30 per cent — the current range of the Asian country’s external tariffs.

According to other sources, the balance of trade between Kenya and China has worsened over the last five years in favour of the Asian countries. Official statistics indicate that while Kenya’s exports to China only grew at a snail pace from Sh1.2 billion in 2005 to Sh2.5 billion in 2009, imports have risen phenomenally to Sh74.5 billion from Sh19.4 billion in 2005.

EU Raw Material Shortages and Elimination of Export Restrictions

According to a European Commission Report, the EU faces shortages of 14 key raw materials used in making cell phones, solar power cells, batteries, and other electronics. The materials that are critical for the EU include: Antimony, Beryllium, Cobalt, Fluorspar, Gallium, Germanium, Graphite, Indium, Magnesium, Niobium, PGMs (Platinum Group Metals), Rare earths, Tantalum and Tungsten.  According to the Report, demand for these metals and minerals could triple over the next 20 years. 

The low global supply of these raw materials is mainly due to the fact that a high share of  worldwide production mainly comes from a handful of countries: China (antimony, fluorspar, gallium, germanium, graphite, indium, magnesium, rare earths, tungsten), Russia (PGM), the Democratic Republic of Congo (cobalt, tantalum) and Brazil (niobium and tantalum). This production concentration is compounded by low substitutability and low recycling rates. Nonetheless, this puts pressure on European nations to maintain strong trade relations with the primary exporters of those materials namely; China, Russia,the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Brazil.

Source: Europe Press Release Rapid

However, as shown above, China is the major source of most of these raw materials.  However she has been accused of restricting the export of certain deposits thereby affecting global supply and prices. A notable illustration of the growing importance of export restrictions, was the establishment of a panel by the WTO Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) in December 2009 to examine complaints brought by the United States, the European Union, and Mexico concerning China’s export restrictions on selected raw materials. Meanwhile Argentina; Brazil; Canada; Chile; Colombia; Ecuador; India; Japan; Korea (Republic of); Mexico; Norway; Chinese Taipei; Turkey and Saudi Arabia have also joined this dispute as third parties. 

According to the USTR, China is the top or near top producer of these materials and these measures skew the playing field against the US and other countries, by creating substantial competitive benefits for downstream Chinese producers, that use the inputs in the production and export of numerous processed steel, aluminum and chemical products and a wide range of further processed products. 

Meanwhile, there has been considerable debate in the WTO, as to whether export taxes actually violate any WTO disciplines, with some arguing that is an area of policy space that was intended to be outside of the multilateral disciplines and hence within Members jurisdiction- especially in low income developing and LDCs.  

However, in the EPA context, the EU has insisted on the elimination of export taxes, even though EPAs are supposed to meet the development needs of the world's poorest countries. Export taxes are used in Africa for industrial or export diversification, revenue, efficient management of resources, environment, job creation, value addition and macro-economic stability. In fact some have advocated that a policy focus on local content, such as available raw materials, is the most sustainable way of ensuring attainment of broader development goals. (see previous post on local content here).

The irony of the matter is that Europe's critical needs are met largely by China- and not Africa. Can the use of such policy measures by African countries be seen to distort world trade or be expected to help Africa move out of poverty and lessen her reliance on donor aid? 

The Global Structural Realignment of Historic Significance

"The traditional split between North and South makes little sense in an increasingly multi-polar world where the largest and most dynamic economies may no longer be the richest, nor the world’s technological leaders”.

The OECD Shifting Wealth 2010 Report raises an interesting point above regarding the traditional north south divide which seems to have outlived its relevance. In fact, the Report finds that OECD non-member economies have markedly increased their share of global output since the 2000s, and  as shown below,  projections predict that this trend will continue. This realignment of the world economy is not a transitory phenomenon, but instead is described as a structural change of historical significance.Other interesting facts...

"In 2007, just before the global financial crisis hit, no fewer than 84 developing countries grew their per capita income at a rate more than twice the OECD average. Among them were more than 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The five-year growth performance of Latin America was its best since the 1960s.

In 2009 China became the leading trade partner of Brazil, India and South Africa. The Indian multinational Tata is now the second most active investor in sub-Saharan Africa. Over 40% of the world’s researchers are now in Asia. As of 2008, developing countries were holding USD 4.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, more than one and a half times the amount held by rich countries.

This structural realignment in the trade context can be considered in light of the fact that Africa trades predominantly with the rest of the world and Asia is the fastest growing trading partner and major source of imports with the US, EU the largest export destinations.  


On Africa-EU trade, the EPAs are deep policy instruments that open Africa's markets to Europe yet Asia is the largest source of imports. One can wonder if EPAs will accelerate or hinder Africa's integration with other developing countries especially with their restrictive rules of origin.

In the WTO Doha Round, traditionally the focus has been on developed and major developing countries with LDCs, (predominantly in Africa) exempt from multilateral liberalization. Hence Africa's south-south engagement would need to be concluded outside of the WTO for developing countries. 

What does this new economic geography mean for global governance, the G20, BRIC economies and is Africa adequately represented in this new world order?

Shifting Wealth: Recommendations for the Future

According to the 2010 Perspectives on Global Development: Shifting Wealth, by the OECD Development Centre, the economic and financial crisis is accelerating a longer-term structural transformation in the global economy. In fact, longer-term forecasts in the Report suggest that today’s developing and emerging countries are likely to account for nearly 60% of world GDP by 2030.  

These findings should indeed transform the way we configure ourselves in Africa especially with the key economic engines of the world; China and India. 
To this end, the Report makes useful recommendations below with regard to development strategies in developing countries, which need to be adapted to harness the opportunities of shifting wealth. 

National development policies should:

● promote South-South foreign direct investment and learning the lessons from successful examples of clusters and Export Processing Zones. They should harness investment links to achieve technological upgrading through national innovation systems;

● ensure appropriate revenue management policies in resource-rich economies and consider using sovereign wealth funds to smooth consumption and channel resources to promote growth and investment in the domestic economy;

● respond to the growing demand for agricultural exports and increasing pressure on arable land by strategies to improve agricultural productivity, through greater support to R&D and extension services, and through South-South technological transfer;

● implement pro-poor growth policies, focusing on providing more and better jobs and improving social protection through further development and replication of institutional innovations such as conditional cash transfers;

● expand South-South peer learning to help design policy based on successful experiences in the South.

A shift from predominantly North-South cooperation to predominantly South South (African and non African) cooperation especially with india and china may require a shift in foreign policy for some African countries. However, that shift is not only necessary but crucial. 

Has the Financial Crisis Revealed the Limits of an Export Led Strategy?

The global economic crisis is making it painfully evident to the developing world, the limitations of over-dependence on a narrow set of exports and markets. Many countries are rightly worried about the merits of a growth process built on export-led growth. In the case of successful export-led growth strategies, the global economic crisis is revealing an additional limitation: the large exposure of exporting countries to financial vulnerability. 

For these reasons, countries should: strengthen their diversification and avoid agricultural or natural resource export vulnerability; emphasise the development of the domestic market; develop industrial policies rather than narrowly defined export led strategies only; increase regional trade and integration; enhance infrastructure development and other private sector development tools.

For instance, China's dependence on export-led growth, particularly as a global platform for exports of manufactured products, left it vulnerable to the effects of the global economic recession that began in late 2008. In 2009, China's exports fell by 16% and its imports fell by 11%, reflecting the high import-intensity of its manufactured export sector. Real GDP growth declined from 9.6% in 2008 to a year-on-year rate of 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009, the lowest rate in more than a decade. If China can be vulnerable to the downside of export-led growth, African countries are no exception.

Has the Financial Crisis Revealed the Limits of an Export Led Strategy? other views here.

President's Obama 2010 Trade Policy Agenda

 President's Obama's 2010 Trade Policy can be accessed here. 


The policy has a distinctly Asian and Pacific slant (understandably so) and in particular mentions China, India, ASEAN, APEC and a proposed FTA- the- Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement, with Australia, Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.  

EU, Russia and Brazil are also addressed (i.e. all the BRICs).

Snippets of the policy priorities include:

a). Support and Strengthen a Rules-Based Trading System

b). Enforce Our Rights in the Rules-Based System

c). Enhance U.S. Growth, Job Creation and Innovation

d). Work to Resolve Outstanding Issues with Pending FTAs and Build on Existing Trade and   Investment Arrangements

e). Facilitate Progress on National Energy and Environmental Goals

f). Foster Stronger Partnerships with Developing and Poor Nations: 

• "The United States stands by our Hong Kong commitment to provide duty-free and quota-free market access to least-developed countries as part of the implementation of a successful conclusion to the Doha Round.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is the location of the world’s largest cluster of extremely poor countries, but the beginnings of growth and reform are evident. The United States will continue to partner with African countries to perpetuate positive changes. Building on the success of last summer’s AGOA Forum in Nairobi, USTR will work with Congress and stakeholders toward a new U.S.-Africa trade paradigm that takes into account new and evolving global trade developments. The next AGOA Forum of U.S. and African trade ministers, to be hosted by the United States this year, can promote the benefits of U.S.- Africa trade to the American public, develop plans to better incorporate small- and medium-sized businesses into trade with Africa, and work with Congress to help African countries take better advantage of AGOA and other trade opportunities. The United States also will continue to work on a bilateral investment treaty with Mauritius, to work with African partners through existing Trade and Investment Framework Agreements (TIFAs), and to consider what other types of trade arrangements the United States can advance with African nations".

g). Reflect American Values in Trade Policy

Comment: On the new policy approach to Sub Saharan Africa,the newly proposed trade agenda, is expected, among other things, to foster regional integration in Africa and increase investment by offering incentives for US investors in Africa. See previous post here.

Joint Ventures Key in China’s Export Growth

Foreign investors have played a key role in the evolution of China’s exports of consumer electronics. Over the past few decades, foreign investors in China were found to be the most productive of the producers, they were the source of technology, and they dominated exports. China’s openness to foreign investment and its willingness to create Special Economic Zones (SEZs) where foreign producers could operate with good infrastructure and with minimum hassles must therefore receive considerable credit. But if China has welcomed foreign companies, it has always done so with the objective of fostering domestic capabilities. To that end, China used a number of policies to ensure that technology transfer would take place and strong domestic players would emerge. Early on, reliance was placed predominantly on state-owned national champions. Later, the government used a variety of carrots and sticks. Foreign investors were required to enter into joint ventures using the Law of the People;s Republic of China on Joint Ventures Using Chinese and Foreign Investment with domestic firms (for instance in mobile phones and in computers).

There was also a role for tariffs. Domestic markets were protected to attract market-seeking investors, in addition to those that looked for cost savings. Weak enforcement of intellectual protection laws enabled domestic producers to reverse engineer and imitate foreign technologies. And localities were given substantial freedoms to fashion their own policies of stimulation and support, which led to the creation of industrial clusters in particular areas of the country.

On acquiring technology transfer and building local supply linkages, China’s strategy was clear: It allowed foreign firms access to the domestic market in exchange for technology transfer through joint production or joint ventures. In fact, 100% foreign owned firms were a rarity among the leading players in the industry. Most of the significant firms tended to be joint ventures between foreign firms and domestic (mostly state-owned) entities. A strong domestic producer base has however also been important in diffusing imported technologies and in creating domestic supply chains. Facilitating technology transfer requires a strong focus on Research and Development by the State. Without state support and publicly funded R&D, a company like Lenovo (previously known as Legend) which became large and profitable enough to purchase IBM’s PC business would never have come into being.

In sum, China has benefited both from good fundamentals—low labor and materials costs, “outward orientation” in the form of SEZs, large market size—and from a determined government effort to acquire domestic capabilities and build a modern industry. The large size of the economy has allowed policy experimentation. It also has allowed the government to use the carrot of the internal market to force foreign investors into joint ventures with domestic producers. If China is producing an increasingly sophisticated set of consumer electronics for instance, it would appear that this is due as much to the policy environment as it is to the free play of market forces.

For more on Special Economic Zones see here.