South Africa's Skills Shortage Dilemma

There is no doubt that the conundrum of an acute skills shortage alongside mass unemployment constitutes the most critical issue threatening the future of South Africa. This year the country has recorded a growth rate of 2.7% and the unemployment rate is about 33%, including those who have given up looking for work. Seventy percent of those unemployed are said to be under the age of 35. A woman leaving school in Limpopo stands a one in eight chance of ever getting a job. 

The skills shortage and high unemployment interact with each other in a devastating way. It is insightful to note that SA’s key problem is how it is going to maintain the growth rate it needs to feed its growing population. SA won’t be able to use the method employed by the Southeast Asian ‘tigers’ of using cheap labour to undercut its export competitors while it grows its economy and expands its skills base, because its labour unions will prevent that.

One solution is to develop a skills-training model based on systems that have been used for years in Germany, Switzerland and several Scandinavian countries. This would involve not only vastly improving the education system but also integrating it with a system of apprenticeships. 

The essence of the German education system is that it is channelled into different streams. There are three streams, actually, but for our purposes we need focus only on two — an academic and a vocational stream. Students should be given a choice, after passing, say, grade 9 or 10, whether they want to continue in the academic stream and go on to university, or learn a vocational skill through an apprenticeship programme. 

Those who drop out of high school earlier should also have the opportunity of entering an apprenticeship course. 

These apprenticeships should be wide-ranging, from becoming a skilled baker or hairdresser, to a motor mechanic, a construction worker or an electrician. A student deciding to enter an apprenticeship must find an employer who will take him or her on to train for the career the individual has chosen — which is usually three years. 

During that time, the student will spend part of his time gaining practical on-the-job experience working for the employer, and part of it attending classes at a vocational school. The classes will focus mainly on the technical side of the job; the shop-floor work on the practical side. Running records have to be kept by both the employer and the vocational school instructors so that the training can be co-ordinated. 

The apprentices are paid a small salary throughout the apprenticeship period, which usually goes up a little each year as their skills advance. At the end, they have to write an exam run by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. When they pass that they are qualified as a skilled professional in the chosen work category — and receive a certificate testifying to that. 

School-leavers in SA today have no craft certification of any sort, which makes getting that critical first-time job in the face of sceptical employers faced with labour regulation requirements cruelly difficult. 

However salary is the thing that troubles the trade unions. 

But the suggestion of how to get around this political problem is to enact a law establishing that the apprenticeship period falls under the Department of Education, not the Department of Labour. 

The Congress of South African Trade Unions actually recognises the need for on-the-job training at lower pay, but it has become so entrenched in its commitment to the principle of "decent work" that it can’t lose face by backing off from it. 

Classifying an apprenticeship as part of an individual’s education may be a way around that difficulty, because the labour regulations could remain unchanged and become applicable to the apprentice only after he has graduated from his apprenticeship. 

A further advantage of the German system is that, after successfully completing a full apprenticeship course, a student can continue at the vocational school for another year or two to acquire higher certification as a "master" baker, mechanic or whatever, which rates as the equivalent of matric — thus opening the way to go to university and, beyond that, to a graduate school of business for an MBA. 

SA's graduates would then be able to seek a job in management with the special advantage of knowing what life is like for workers on the shop floor and earning their respect in turn for having that knowledge. 

Flexibility is the essence of any such system, so that German students from the academic stream can also switch to become apprentices after passing matric if they so wish, enabling them to follow the same route to a job in management. 

SA is going to need skilled workers every bit as much as she needs to reduce the unemployment rate. 

Original Article by Allister Sparks: Business Day

New Database On Global Value Supply Chains

The European Union has launched the new "World Input-Output Database" which allows trade analysts to assess the global value chains created by world trade. These added-value chains have become an essential feature of economic reality as trade is becoming increasingly globalised as today's traded products are not produced in a single location but rather are the end result of a series of steps carried out in many countries around the world. Instead of counting the gross value of goods and services exchanged, the new database reveals the value added embodied in these goods and services as they are traded internationally. The findings are significant as they change the perception of the competitiveness of certain sectors in some countries. 

In addition, policy makers and societies at large are facing increasingly pressing trade-offs between socio-economic and environmental developments. Increases in production induce growth in the use of non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels, materials, land and water. Furthermore, they generate higher levels of waste and emissions of environmental pollutants. Simultaneously, increasing global integration through international trade and technological developments creates a tension. In this regard, the database considers satellite accounts with environmental and socio-economic indicators, from which industry-level data can provide the necessary input to several types of models used to evaluate policies aimed at striking a suitable balance between growth, environmental degradation and inequality across the world.

Karel De Gucht, the EU commissioner for trade has said that the change in statistical accounting for trade applied in the database has been developed to determine the consequences of the fragmentation of supply chains. For example a third of world trade happens within firms while two thirds of European imports are not of final products but of intermediate goods and raw materials, to which EU firms add one or more layers of value before they are finally sold, often for export.  The EU trade commissioner gave the example of a Nokia smartphone, "it is listed as being made in China, but in reality 54% of its value comes from tasks that are carried out in Europe. Key components are produced in other parts of Asia and only the assembly itself actually happens in China.  Today, we measure trade by counting the total price of the good that is being exported or imported, but because we do this both for components and for final products we get a distorted picture of what is really happening.  Hence according to the database, when we look at trade in value as opposed to traditional statistics, EU trade deficit with China is reduced by 36%. In 2011, the trade deficit between the EU and China stood at EUR155.9 billion however using this new method China-EU deficit starts to look like less of a problem."

On services, interestingly when looking at trade in supply chain terms,  the classic distinction in trade policy between goods and services is increasingly artificial. This is because services represents almost 60% of the value European firms add to the products exported from Europe. 

The database covers 27 EU countries and 13 other major countries in the world for the period from 1995 to 2009. It is notable that not a single African country is included in the database which possibly says something about Africa's non-participation or rather minuscule contribution to global supply chains. In addition, all BRICS economies are included in the database with the notable exception of South Africa.  One wonders why the EU wants African countries to eliminate export taxes (under the EPAs) when in essence the contribution of African exports to global trade and supply chains is too insignificant to be in included in the database.

African countries generally export largely raw materials (e.g fuels, metals) and some agricultural products to the EU and generally lack capacity to add value domestically especially for manufactured products. Other supply capacity barriers to Africa's participation in global value chains include limited foreign ownership and lack of global networks which are a significant factor in characterizing the intensity of global exports but not necessarily for regional exports. The lack of technological advancement is also a significant barrier especially in global exports. Public infrastructure constraints, such as inferior power services and customs delays, seem to have more immediate impacts on regional exports as does customs efficiency and poor trade facilitation which is also hampers the competitive participation of African producers in global supply chain industries. 

In a related article, we saw that China overcame similar challenges by exploiting joint ventures.  China allowed foreign firms access to the domestic market in exchange for technology transfer through joint production or joint ventures. In fact, 100% foreign owned firms were a rarity among the leading players in the industry in China, unlike Export Processing Zones in Africa. China’s openness to foreign investment and its willingness to create Special Economic Zones (SEZs) where foreign producers could operate with good infrastructure and with minimum hassles must therefore receive considerable credit. However if China  welcomed foreign companies, she always did so with the objective of fostering domestic capabilities.