Kenya's Sugar Sector and COMESA Safeguards

According to sources, Kenya’s sugar sector faces a gloomy future as the end of the COMESA safeguards beckons.

In March 2004, the government requested a four-year cover that was granted with conditions from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) council of ministers. However, Kenya is yet to meet any of the conditions, and the government now indicates it will be seeking another extension when the current one ends March 2014.

Agriculture secretary Felix Koskei says the government is keen on an extension of the protection. “We will explain to COMESA why we need an extension; we understand that we have exhausted our limits, but we still have the reasons to be given one more extension,” says Mr Koskei.

Kenya has exhausted the required allowance for the extensions as put in place by the COMESA treaty, and it is not clear whether the window will be extended.  The cover came into effect in 2003 and Kenya was given a four-year waiver that would see the importation of duty-free sugar from the COMESA market regulated. Kenya got extensions in 2007 and in 2011. Initially, the treaty would provide for a maximum of eight years, however, the waiver in December 2007 was amended to avoid contravening COMESA Trade Remedy Regulation which provide for a maximum eight years for the application of safeguards under the bloc’s terms.  COMESA reviewed the regulations to be in tandem with the World Trade Organisation’s agreement on safeguards which provides for a total of 10 years for developing economies.

A former chairman with the Kenya Sugar Board (KSB) and currently a director at the agency says political will shall override the COMESA treaty on the protection.  “At the end of the day, political will shall prevail over the treaty; each member country has own interest of protecting their sugar sectors which provides a source of livelihood for more than a million people,” says Mr Saulo Busolo.  Kenya is considered a large-scale consumer of industrial sugar, used in making cakes, sweets and pharmaceutical products, which are later sold within COMESA.  Mr Busolo says Kenyan consumers are paying exorbitant prices for sugar as a result of shielding the local manufacturers from increased competition from neighboring African nations.  “Consumers are parting with high prices in buying sugar compared to other African countries such as Mauritius,” he said, adding that Kenyans were paying more than two times the world average. Mauritius exports all the locally produced sugar and imports cheap sugar from the COMESA market to sell it to its citizens cheaply, he said. 

A World Bank report on Kenya released last week says the protection measures have contributed to making Kenya a high-cost sugar producer, hurting the consumer.The high cost of producing sugar in Kenya is attributed to high cost of farm inputs. Kenya’s average production cost stands at $950 per metric tonne compared to regional countries like Malawi where the cost is as low as $350 per metric tonne.  When the safeguards were granted Kenya was asked to, among other conditions, come up with a formula for paying farmers and sell the State-owned millers. Some of the State millers are Miwani, Muhoroni, Awendo-based Sony, Nzoia, and Chemelil. Currently, the payment is based on a farmer’s supplies and the industry average. According to the COMESA safeguards, the payment would be quality-based judged by sucrose content, not the bulk. The KSB, the industry watchdog, says a pilot is running in Sony and Nzoia. The impending sale of the millers has been delayed for years, the Cabinet having given it a nod in 2010. But it could not take off, partly because there was no law and having the Privatization Commission in place also took a while.

Critics and reviewers, however, have voted overwhelmingly for the sale of the former giants to inject efficiency backed by new investment, talent, and limited political interference.  Before the window closed in the first four years of the first extension, all these millers had a combined debt of Sh50 billion, one of the factors that delayed their sale.  The minister has blamed the delay in privatization on the last Parliament, that, he says, did not give the government the go-ahead. “Parliament did not give the Treasury the privatization go-ahead that would have started early this year,” said Mr Koskei. 

The government negotiated for the COMESA lifeline to allow the importation of 200,000 tonnes to meet the country’s deficit, whose total annual consumption stands at 700,000 tonnes against the local production of 500,000 tonnes.This comes even as the regulator has warned that it will cancel the licences of the sugar factories that would not comply with the sugar policy that requires all the millers to have more than one income generating project. The policy, to be implemented in the next 24 months by the KSB is aimed at protecting the local sugar industry from collapsing in the weight of cheap sugar once the COMESA window closes. KSB chief executive officer Rosemary M’kok says that the 24-month window period is enough time for all the sugar factories to have complied with the requirement. “The factories that would not have complied with our policy will definitely have their licences cancelled as KSB will not renew them,” Ms M’kok said. It would be mandatory for all the millers to produce sugar, ethanol and electricity as a different source of generating income, instead of relying on sugar alone.

Can Africa Feed Africa?

A new World Bank report Africa Can Help Feed Africa: Removing barriers to regional trade in food staples ―says that Africa’s farmers can potentially grow enough food to feed the continent and avert future food crises if countries remove cross-border restrictions on the food trade within the region. According to the Bank, the continent would also generate an extra US$20 billion in yearly earnings if African leaders can agree to dismantle trade barriers that blunt more regional dynamism. The report was released on the eve of an African Union (AU) ministerial summit in Addis Ababa on agriculture and trade.

According to the report “Africa has the ability to grow and deliver good quality food to put on the dinner tables of the continent’s families, however, this potential is not being realized because farmers face more trade barriers in getting their food to market than anywhere else in the world. Too often borders get in the way of getting food to homes and communities which are struggling with too little to eat.”

With many African farmers effectively cut off from the high-yield seeds, and the affordable fertilizers and pesticides needed to expand their crop production, including unpredictable weather patterns, the continent has turned to foreign imports to meet its growing needs in staple foods.

See full report here for some policy considerations.

A Look at Turkey's Trade Policy and FTA with Mauritius

Turkey concluded an FTA with the first Sub Saharan African country, Mauritius, on September 9th 2011 and is expected to initiate negotiations with other EPA and EC FTA signatories.  This is because the customs union between Turkey and the EU, which entered into force on 1 January 1996, has been the main factor shaping Turkey's foreign trade policy.  In addition, the EU opened accession negotiations with Turkey in October 2005 and guidance on reform priorities is provided through the Accession Partnership, adopted in February 2008.

In the EU-Turkey customs union, the EU unilaterally eliminated all customs duties and equivalent measures for industrial products and processed agricultural products when the trade-related provisions of the Interim Agreement of the Protocol entered into force in September 1971, whereas Turkey as a developing country was accorded a transition period of 22 years.  

The EC-Turkey customs union also provides for a common external tariff for the products covered, and foresees that Turkey will align its trade-related legislation with the EU acquis in several areas essential for market access, e.g. with respect to product standards.  The customs union covers all industrial products as well as the industrial component of processed agricultural goods, TRIPS, and competition policy, but does not extend to agricultural commodities, services, or government procurement.  The EU however offers Turkey a preferential regime on imports of certain agricultural products. Negotiations on services and government procurement were launched in 2000, but are now part of Turkey's accession process. 

The customs union also provides provision for:

• free movement (elimination of customs duties and quantitative restrictions) 
• alignment of Turkey on the EC common external tariff, including preferential arrangements (even GSP), and harmonisation of commercial policy measures;
• approximation of customs law, and
• approximation of other laws (intellectual property, competition, taxation, etc.)
• the adoption by Turkey of measures equivalent to the EU's common commercial policy

The European Union remains Turkey's most important trading partner and investor.  For instance, the EU accounted for nearly 70% of total FDI inflows into Turkey during 2005-10.  Nearly 40% of its imports come from the EU, and just over 50% of exports go to the EU. Machinery and transport equipment dominate EU imports from Turkey followed by manufactured articles which account for 24.3%. Main EU exports to Turkey are machinery and transport material (45.1%), chemical products (17.1%) and manufactured goods (15.1%).Globally,  Turkey ranks 7th in the EU's top import list and 5th as an export market.  However, the dominance of the EU in Turkey's foreign trade has declined markedly over the last five years, reflecting a notable shift in Turkish exports towards growth markets in its neighbourhood, in North Africa, certain CIS countries, and in Asia. 

Other main Turkish export markets in 2010 were Iraq (5.3%), Russia (4.1 %), USA (3.4%), United Arab Emirates (2.9%) and Iran (2.7%). Imports into Turkey came from other key markets include: Russia (11.7%), China (9.4%), USA (6.7%), Iran (4.2%) and South Korea (2.6%). 

Turkey currently has about 17 FTAs in force which include one with the EFTA countries, Israel, Macedonia (FYR), Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Palestinian Authority, Tunisia, Morocco Syria, Egypt, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Georgia, Chile, Jordan, Lebanon and Mauritius.

The Mauritius-Turkey FTA provides enhanced duty free access on most industrial products.  All Mauritian industrial products will enter Turkey duty free with the exception of some 70 lines related to textiles which will be phased on four years.  Mauritius in return will offer duty free access to more than 80% of its tariff lines to Turkish industrial products.  In any case Mauritius is a duty free island with over 80% of applied tariffs at zero. 

Why the exclusion of agricultural products? Turkey, even though a member of the G-33 , ranks amongst the largest agricultural producers in the world and the main crop is wheat of which the country is over 90% self-sufficient. With corn, Turkey is about 80% self-sufficient and is a net-exporter of barley. Other major crops include fruit and vegetables, nuts, tobacco, cotton, and sugar. Turkey is also one of the major milk producers in the world, predominantly for domestic consumption of cheese and yoghurt.  While Turkey has specialized feed lots and dairy farms, and large-scale commercial poultry farms, livestock production is mainly extensive and small-scale.  

Useful to note that Turkish agricultural policy was adopted with a view to aligning it more closely with the EU Common Agricultural Policy.  Turkey's main policy objectives are food security and food safety, and raising the self-sufficiency level for selected net-imported products;  improving productivity and competitiveness;  ensuring sustainable farm incomes;  rural development;  and improving institutional capacity.

For comparison, by the end of 2007, the 6 ESA EPA States: Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, Zambia and Zimbabwe agreed an interim EPA with the EU. Mauritius in that agreement submitted an individual schedule which is annexed to the interim EPA and liberalises 96% of EU imports into Mauritius compared to a liberalisation of 80% with Turkey, possibly due to the inclusion of some agricultural products in the EPA.

What appears unfortunate in the Mauritius-Turkey FTA is that Turkey seems to have offered market access predominately in industrial goods, where Turkey is competitive. However few SSA African countries are neither productive nor competitive in industrial manufacturing. With Turkey being an emerging industrial exporter, the loss of revenue on the import side for African countries could be an area of concern. In agriculture, Turkey provides subsidized support which is equivalent to the EU Common Agricultural Policy.  

China and EAC Sign Trade and Investment Framework Agreement

The Framework Agreement between EAC and China focuses on the promotion of commodity trade, exchange of visits by business people from EAC and China, co-operation in investment, infrastructure development, human resource development and training. The two sides also created a Joint Committee on Economy, Trade, Investment and Technical Cooperation (JCET) as the implementation framework for the Agreement. 

This is a different type agreement from the EPAs. It focuses on market enabling assistance in areas such as infrastructure development, skills development and private sector engagement. In fact, China has indicated she will provide funding for feasibility studies on roads and infrastructure. The focus on commodity trade also signals willingness to expand agricultural production and processing of agricultural commodities and thereby enhancement of the value chain.

Innovation for Growth in Africa

...there are a number of areas where Africa must quickly focus its energy to improve its productivity and accelerate growth; agriculture, health, information technology and the arts. 

Access the full speech by Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Managing Director, World Bank here

US and India on Partnering with Africa

Recent discussion by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on how India and the US could partner with Africa to foster its development. This is relevant because foreign investors interested in Africa are facing similar risks and opportunities to those they faced when investing in India. African countries could therefore learn from India’s successful economic reforms in service and industrial sectors which helped it achieve an impressive growth rate for several years. 

Some useful ideas from this discussion include:

India can contribute to Africa’s development by sharing its experiences in mobilizing human capital and social policy innovation, such as the ongoing large-scale rural employment program launched in India in 2006. In fiscal year 2009/10 alone, it provided employment to 52.5 million rural households. India can help Africa produce high tech yet low cost goods that are within the purchasing power of the African people.

India’s Green Revolution transformed the country from a food deficit nation into a food self-sufficient country. The introduction of high-yielding varieties of seeds, increased use of fertilizers, and improved irrigation helped to increase agricultural productivity in India, leading to self-sufficiency in food grains. It also helped India to effectively address famines. This revolution is similar to what happened in China.

Foreign investors need to diversify from energy investment in Africa and investment needs be increased in non-energy sectors as well.

The US government and the private sector could consider public-private partnerships in order to reduce investment risks while making investments in Africa. This could also be done by developing tax incentives and credits for US investors in Africa (see previous post on this here).

On financing, U.S. banks are risk-averse and less willing to finance businesses in Africa, which creates a financing problem for U.S. businesses interested in doing business in Africa. However, European banks have been more forthcoming in financing investment in Africa. A possible proposed solution in this regard could be increased support from the Overseas Private Investment  Corporation (OPIC) in the US.

SSA Exports to the EU and US

Useful summary on the composition of Sub Saharan Africa's Exports to the EU and US, which shows:

• SSA non-oil exports to the European Union have been noticeably higher than to the United States
• Textiles and apparel were prominent in non-minerals/metals SSA exports to the United States, while agricultural products were a larger component in SSA exports to the European Union.
• SSA agricultural exports to the United States are markedly lower than to the European Union (due, in part, to the closer proximity of Europe to SSA).
• While remaining (non-oil, non-minerals/metals, non-textiles/apparel, non-agriculture) SSA exports to the United States have grown, they are still markedly lower than to the European Union. In 2008, exports from South Africa accounted for 81% of total SSA exports in this category to the U.S., and 59% to the EU.

Meanwhile, the US is the largest country importer globally and the single largest importer of African goods at a country level. Hence the U.S. has a merchandise trade deficit with Sub-Saharan Africa and the deficit continued to widen in 2008 to $67.5 billion, from $53.0 billion in 2007. Nigeria, Angola, the Republic of Congo, South Africa, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea accounted for 97.2 percent of the U.S. trade deficit with Sub-Saharan Africa in 2008. 

Meanwhile Africa's trade with the EU has continued to decline, from a high of 55% in the mid eighties to about 35% share of total Africa trade in 2008. See previous post on Africa's Trade Profile with Global Partners.

Climate Change and Africa’s Food Deficit

"Africa is now facing the same type of long-term food deficit problem that India faced in the early 1960s". This is according to a Study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) which recommends that Africa should spend more on Agriculture in order to avert a possible crisis. Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) food deficit is also increasingly compounded by climate change. In fact, one-third of the African population lives in drought-prone areas while two-thirds of SSA’s surface area is desert or dry land. The major impact of climate change on food security includes changes in precipitation and insulation, changes in the length of growing seasons and changes in carbon uptake. Additionally there are declines in agricultural yields, decline in the quality of pasture and livestock production, and reduced vegetation cover which place local people at risk of famine.

Climate change also affects rain-fed agriculture which is the main safety net of poor people in rural areas where agriculture employs about 70 percent of the population. The rain related challenges can either cause drought or floods and the maps shown (Source: World Bank Development Report 2010) indicates the countries likely to be affected by either.

Despite the fact that most people in SSA are engaged in agriculture, its productivity has stagnated for several years across the whole sub-region making the region a net food importer. In fact, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) list for 2010 of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDC) - 44 of the 77 low income food deficit countries in the world are in Africa.

An example is the disappearance of Lake Chad over a 40 year period as shown in the image (source: GRID Arendal UNEP). Lake Chad is shared by Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger and its disappearance is a grim reminder of the dramatic ecological challenges and food shortages that lie ahead. The lake's area has decreased by 80 per cent over the last four decades, with catastrophic impacts on those reliant on its resources. Lake Victoria is receding as well and projected reductions in the rivers in the Nile region signal difficult times ahead. 

Another dimension is that of water, storage and infrastructure. Most rivers cross more than one country, necessitating effective cooperation across borders. Africa’s 63 transboundary river basins together account for 90 percent of its surface water resources necessitating regional water control systems.  Armed conflict further complicates agriculture and climate change risk management. For poor people living in weak or unstable states, climate change will deepen hunger, suffering, and intensify the risks of food insecurity, mass migration, violent conflict, and further fragility.

According to a World Bank Publication, by 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa will need to feed more people in a harsher climate. Agriculture will simply have to become more productive, getting more crop per drop while protecting ecosystems. Water resources need to be managed better by scaling up existing infrastructure to manage watersheds, rainfed agriculture and protecting forests. Improved planning for storage, power transmission, and irrigation including screening investments for climate risks will also be necessary. Countries will need to develop mechanisms for collaboration across sectors and countries.

There is a role for innovation and academic research institutions as well. This could be done by adopting simple technologies suitable for small farmers such as low-cost drip irrigation and storage of rainwater. African farmers should also be helped to work with new crop varieties. One example is "New Rice for Africa" (Nerica), an Asian-African hybrid developed in Africa with support from the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA), that combines drought resistance with high yields and high protein content. 

NERICA, the new rice variety was the result of years of work by a team of plant breeders and particularly Sierra Leonean molecular scientist Monty Jones at the West Africa Rice Development Association (WARDA – now the Africa Rice Center). When Dr. Jones (a 2004 winner of the WFP) set up the biotechnology research program in 1991, some 240 million people in West Africa were dependant on rice as their primary source of food energy and protein, but the majority of Africa’s rice was imported, at an annual cost of US$1 billion. According to WIPO, the most popular Nerica rice takes only three months to ripen, as opposed to six months for the parent species, thus allowing African farmers to “double crop” it in a single growing season with nutritionally rich vegetables or high-value fiber crops. 

Meanwhile in 2009, Dr. Gebisa Ejeta of Ethiopia, was the recipient of the World Food Prize for his sorghum hybrids which are resistant to drought and the devastating Striga weed and which has dramatically increased the production and availability of one of the world’s five principal grains and enhanced the food supply of hundreds of millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa.

Overall, a Climate Strategy for Africa and food security should also include: sustainable land and forest management; increased knowledge and analytical capacity, improved weather forecasting, research, extension services, market infrastructure and renewal energy generation systems. Farmers will also need to benefit from integrating biodiversity into the landscape and reducing carbon emissions from soil and deforestation.

The Green Wall of the Sahara and Sahel

going green... 


The Sahara desert experiences one of the harshest weather conditions in the world. The very dry, sandy winds and hot weather conditions certainly affect trade output and patterns in this region. For instance as sand dunes move, they bury villages, roads, oases, crops, irrigation channels and dams, causing major economic damage and increasing poverty and food insecurity.This groundbreaking transcontinental project tries to address this.

African nations on the desert border south of the Sahara are taking action to halt the march of sands by creating a great wall of green. They are contributing to the prevention of desert advancement and the development of the Saharo-Sahelian zones in order to ensure sustainable natural resource management and poverty reduction.

The “Great Green Wall” project is largely a multi-species vegetal belt 15 km wide that will link Dakar and Djibouti and stretch over a distance of about 7000 km. However it won’t be a continuous band of trees, but may be rerouted if necessary to avoid obstacles (streams, rocky terrains, mountains and rock hills) or go through inhabited areas, stretching from Mauritania in the west to Djibouti in the east.

The initiative will be a set of cross-sectoral actions and interventions aimed at the conservation and protection of natural resources with a view to achieving development and particularly, alleviating poverty. The trees however will be "drought-adapted species", preferably native to the areas planted, and so far about 37 suitable species have been identified. 

The African Union officially adopted the Great Green Wall initiative in December 2006 as one of the pillars of a rural strategy which reconciles development and environment. At the 8th common session of the Conference of the Heads of State and Government held in January 2007, the African Union adopted Declaration 137 VIII approving the Initiative "Green Great wall of Sahara. "

The plan benefits from Africa-EU Climate Change Partnership support and is implemented in collaboration with the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD). The Project has been in the works for several years with sources indicating funding difficulties and concerns regarding its maintenance. Nonetheless, it is expected that tree planting will soon begin. The great green belt will be 7000km long and 15km wide, at a cost $3 million to plant. The west-most section will be planted in Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal, while the eastern section will be planted in Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan.


Being a transboundary Programme, the implementation of the Great Green Wall Initiative would require some degree of policy harmonization for the implementation of issues such as transboundary range, ecosystems, water management and joint afforestation programmes. The participating countries would need to review their relevant policies and legislation to accommodate community involvement in environmental resources management and ownership of the benefits. 

Meanwhile the Food and Agriculture Organization has recently published a manual featuring a project in Mauritania which successfully fixed dunes and stopped sand encroachment. Sand encroachment is what happens when grains of sand are carried by winds and collect in dunes on the coast, along watercourses and on cultivated or uncultivated land.

According to a Study by the Sahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS), the threat prosed by desertification is particularly acute in Africa, one of the continents most affected by the processes and impacts of land degradation and the deterioration of the communities' living conditions, particularly in the CEN-SAD area characterized by climate ranging from hyper-arid to dry sub-humid. 

Livelihoods in the countries located in this sub-region are heavily dependent on soil, water and vegetation resources, which have become increasingly fragile due to the mounting pressure being exerted on them.

Scoring for Africa: An Alternative Guide to the 2010 World Cup

This is clever.


Chair of the Africa Progress Panel, Kofi Annan and United Nations Development Programme Goodwill Ambassador and football star Didier Drogba have published ‘Scoring for Africa – An Alternative Guide to the World Cup’. The publication compares the ‘vital statistics’ of each African country in the games against their competitors in terms of development – examining key indicators such as trade, investment, economic growth, CO2 emissions and human development.

For example, on trade and investment in Africa the report shows that in:

• GROUP A South Africa-France: While France is still one of the largest wine producers in the world, South Africa is catching up fast. In 2010, South African wines outsold their French competitors in several markets, including the UK. Since 1994, wine exports from South Africa have increased from 50 million litres to nearly 400 million litres, making the country the world’s 9th largest wine producer.

• GROUP B Nigeria-South Korea: Trade between Nigeria and South Korea has been on a steady rise, totaling $2.65 billion in 2008. As a result, Nigeria has emerged as South Korea’s third largest trading partner in Africa. South Korea is Nigeria’s fourth largest trading partner.

• GROUP C Algeria-UK: The UK is the largest foreign investor in Algeria and is particularly interested in the country’s oil and gas sectors.

• GROUP D Ghana-Germany: Having a long history of trade relations, both countries are aiming to increase the total trade volume to €500 million this year. Germany is Ghana’s fifth largest supplier and seventh most important export destination. Ghana’s exports to Germany are dominated by three traditional export goods:cocoa, gold, and timber.

• GROUP E Cameroon-Netherlands: While negotiations on an EPA continue, interim agreements have been signed by Cameroon, which has allowed for duty free access to the EU for all cocoa and chocolate products. This has meant an improvement in comparison to the taxes the country was subject to previously. However, under the EPA agreement, some of the cocoa products are not covered by the duty free access and are subject to a higher tariffs

• GROUP G Brazil Cote D' Ivoire:  In line with Brazil’s renewed focus on South-South relations, the government has expanded and prioritized trade ties with African countries. As a result, Brazil’s annual trade with Africa has jumped from $3.1 billion in 2000 to $26.3 billion last year. While trade between Brazil and Côte d’Ivoire is still relatively small, both countries are major cocoa producers and founding members of the Cocoa Producers’ Alliance (COPAL).

Kenya's Economy; Driven by Services With Merchandise Exports Declining

While telecommunications, construction and transport sectors continued to drive Kenya's economy in 2009, merchandise exports have shrunk over the years and the Port of Mombasa has been identified as one stumbling block to Kenya's continued economic growth.  

This is according to the 2010 Kenya Country Report by the World Bank which finds that Kenya's growth rate was 2.5% in 2009 with higher projections of 4.0% foreseen in 2010. Even tourist arrivals registered a 18.9 percent growth in the first quarter of this year showing positive signs for this sector. Nonetheless, for the third consecutive year, Kenya's growth will continue to lag behind its EAC neighbours, as shown below.  

     The Report finds that overall, services grew by 4.2% and increased share of GDP from 50 % in 2000 to 55% of GDP in 2009. Agriculture contracted by 2.4%,and the role of agriculture in the economy  declined from 32% in 2000 to 26% in 2009, due in part to drought. Meanwhile, industry grew at 3.9% in 2009 due to the construction sub sector. 

This mixed performance is in part structural and in addition, Kenya remains sensitive to climatic conditions.  For instance, the 2009 weak performance in manufacturing was caused by the spillover effects from the drought which caused higher electricity costs, power outages and reduced water supply. The drought had spill-over effects in all sectors and clearly increased efforts in key infrastructure services will be necessary, to sustain increased growth.

Kenya’s economy is currently more dependant on domestic consumption than exports, and Kenya’s highest value exports, especially horticulture and tourism remain heavily dependant on Europe. This high degree of export concentration makes Kenya vulnerable to external shocks and points to the need to further diversify export markets. 

Surprisingly, Kenya has an export strategy, which was approved by Cabinet in 2004.  See previous post here on the weaknesses of export-led strategies. 

While exports of goods have been unimpressive, services exports increased from 8% in 2000 to 12% of GDP in 2009.  The strength of the domestic sector and the weakness in exports has created a large and growing current account deficit which reached 5.5% of GDP by end 2009. This current account deficit was financed mainly by increasing short term financial inflows including investment. 

                              One lesson learnt- so to speak- is that Kenya has not yet developed a targeted and strategic industrial policy. This is despite having several national policy documents such as the Vision 2030, the Private Sector Development Strategy, the Master Plan for Kenya’s Industrial Development, and the recently drafted National Trade Policy. 

Technology and Innovation in Agriculture

The Technology and Innovation Report 2010: Enhancing Food Security in Africa Through Science and Technology and Innovation  looks at the current trend towards declining agricultural productivity in many developing countries, especially in Africa.  


1. The Report identifies key challenges in the growth of agricultural capacity. These include: 
(a) declining investment; 
(b) a lack of guaranteed land tenure and access to credit;
(c) isolation of small holder farmers; 
(d) inadequate adaptation to climate change; 
(e) lack of  high technology bio-energy solutions; 
(f) previous structural adjustment policies and 
(g) a lack of regionally relevant innovation priorities in agricultural research and innovation.  


2. To address these impediments, the key recommendations include to:
(a) Place smallholder farmers at the centre of policy;
(b) Strengthen policy maker capabilities;
(c) Target agricultural investment;
(d) Reinforce agricultural innovation systems by focusing on the enabling environment;
(e) Take into account local agro-ecological conditions;
(f) Explore the potential of global networks and value chains;
(g) Link national, regional and international agriculture research to innovation;
(h) Revitalize funding and strategies for research and development;
(i) Promote Linkages Within and Outside of the Agriculture Innovation System
(j) Engage in capacity building;
(k) International cooperation on technology transfer & technology sharing and
(l) Multilateral rule-making and policy space


The Report can be accessed here. 

The Africa-China Engagement

There has been considerable debate about the merits of China’s engagement in Africa, often with divergent views.  However the practical benefits for Africa are often welcome. 

For instance, according to the Africa Progress Report, recently presented by the Chair of the Africa Progress Panel, Mr Kofi Annan, China’s investment in Africa has doubled in the last decade (see chart) from about US$2billion in 2003 to over US$4billion in 2008. In addition Africa-China trade was estimated at US$6.5billion in 1999 but in 2008 was valued at US$107 billion, making China the second largest single country trading partner following the US. 
However China remains the regions largest source of imports and reportedly over 1600 Chinese companies are in operation in Africa, with the Chinese Government also investing in low cost industrial zones (e,g, Egypt) and in the agricultural sector (e.g. Ethiopia). 


Additionally, China also has targeted practical areas in which to focus its aid to Africa.  At 4th Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, announced eight (8) new measures to promote practical cooperation with Africa. The selected economic measures include:  Support to strengthen agricultural exchanges and cooperation in order to help Africa to increase food production capacity and increase the number of agricultural technology demonstration centers built by China in Africa to 20, and send 50 agricultural technology teams to Africa.

China has also pledged support to strengthen cooperation in education and human resources development; to build 50 China-Africa friendship schools; to train 20,000 personnel for Africa, including 1,500 school headmasters and teachers, 2,000 agricultural technology personnel, 3,000 doctors and nurses and to provide 1.5 million U.S. dollars in support of human resources training under New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD).

Additionally, there will be support to strengthen cooperation in clean energy development and utilization, in clean drinking water technologies and to help Africa enhance capacity to adapt to climate change.

China will further advance the sound development of China-Africa trade by phasing in zero-tariff treatment for 95 percent of the products from the Least Developed African countries (LDCs) having diplomatic relations with China. This will starting with 60 percent of the products within 2010. China has also pledged to set up African commodities trade center in China and adopt preferential policies such as fees reduction for participating African enterprises to promote export of African commodities to China. China will also establish three to five logistic centers in Africa and improve business facilities in African countries.

To address the financial crisis, China will provide Africa with 10 billion U.S. dollars in concessional loans, mainly for infrastructure and social development projects.  The government will also support Chinese financial institutions in setting up a 1 billion U.S. dollar special loan to grow African small and medium enterprises.

China will also continue to support poverty reduction efforts and cancel due debts of interest-free government loans that matured by the end of 2009 owed by all heavily-indebted poor countries and the LDCs in Africa having diplomatic relations with China.

Finally, China has promised to further fulfill the pledges made at the Beijing Summit and to increase the size of China-Africa Development Fund to 3 billion U.S. dollars and support Chinese enterprises to expand investment in Africa.

My view is that there is a lot we can learn from China.  For instance on average, China's economy grew 10 percent per year between 1980 and 2008, compared with only three percent in sub-Saharan Africa during the same period. These divergences in economic growth in general, and in agricultural development in particular, have led to noticeably different patterns in poverty reduction in both regions.

According to a study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), between 1980 and 2005, the number of poor people decreased in China by more than four times, from 835 million to 208 million. The researchers found that China's strong initial emphasis on agricultural growth was essential in reducing poverty in that country. Growth in agriculture in China is estimated to have contributed to poverty reduction four times more than growth in manufacturing and services. Meanwhile according to World Bank figures, the role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen from 19 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 1980 to 14 percent in 2008.