Kenya's Economy; Driven by Services With Merchandise Exports Declining

While telecommunications, construction and transport sectors continued to drive Kenya's economy in 2009, merchandise exports have shrunk over the years and the Port of Mombasa has been identified as one stumbling block to Kenya's continued economic growth.  

This is according to the 2010 Kenya Country Report by the World Bank which finds that Kenya's growth rate was 2.5% in 2009 with higher projections of 4.0% foreseen in 2010. Even tourist arrivals registered a 18.9 percent growth in the first quarter of this year showing positive signs for this sector. Nonetheless, for the third consecutive year, Kenya's growth will continue to lag behind its EAC neighbours, as shown below.  

     The Report finds that overall, services grew by 4.2% and increased share of GDP from 50 % in 2000 to 55% of GDP in 2009. Agriculture contracted by 2.4%,and the role of agriculture in the economy  declined from 32% in 2000 to 26% in 2009, due in part to drought. Meanwhile, industry grew at 3.9% in 2009 due to the construction sub sector. 

This mixed performance is in part structural and in addition, Kenya remains sensitive to climatic conditions.  For instance, the 2009 weak performance in manufacturing was caused by the spillover effects from the drought which caused higher electricity costs, power outages and reduced water supply. The drought had spill-over effects in all sectors and clearly increased efforts in key infrastructure services will be necessary, to sustain increased growth.

Kenya’s economy is currently more dependant on domestic consumption than exports, and Kenya’s highest value exports, especially horticulture and tourism remain heavily dependant on Europe. This high degree of export concentration makes Kenya vulnerable to external shocks and points to the need to further diversify export markets. 

Surprisingly, Kenya has an export strategy, which was approved by Cabinet in 2004.  See previous post here on the weaknesses of export-led strategies. 

While exports of goods have been unimpressive, services exports increased from 8% in 2000 to 12% of GDP in 2009.  The strength of the domestic sector and the weakness in exports has created a large and growing current account deficit which reached 5.5% of GDP by end 2009. This current account deficit was financed mainly by increasing short term financial inflows including investment. 

                              One lesson learnt- so to speak- is that Kenya has not yet developed a targeted and strategic industrial policy. This is despite having several national policy documents such as the Vision 2030, the Private Sector Development Strategy, the Master Plan for Kenya’s Industrial Development, and the recently drafted National Trade Policy.