Interesting analysis below from the business day. Should note that SA's BRICS membership also adds another dimension to the tripartite FTA consisting of COMESA-EAC-SADC Member States.
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There is wide consensus that SA’s place in the emerging-market bloc that groups Brazil, Russia, India and China together, is only justified by SA’s strategic importance on the continent.
That means the country needs to tread a careful path between touting its own interests and facilitating links to the rest of Africa.
"It would be in SA’s interest to see this as a bargaining opportunity for the continent rather than just being expedient," said Standard Bank ’s group chief economist, Goolam Ballim. "Otherwise this could be harmful in the longer term for inter- African relationships."
It is a delicate task as SA does not have a mandate at this point to speak for any other African country. Jim O’Neill, the banker from Goldman Sachs who invented the acronym for the first four Bric countries, has said that Nigeria is in a better position to join the grouping.
SA’s economy is only a quarter the size of Russia’s, the next-smallest Brics member, and its share of world trade has been stagnant at 0,5% over the past decade. Its pace of growth also lags well behind the bloc’s other members.
But SA has a lot to offer the group, which analysts say could evolve into a political force rivalling the Group of Seven developed nations, campaigning for the interests of emerging economies. SA has one of the strongest financial sectors in the world, and receives about 95% of Africa’s portfolio inflows — foreign buying of local shares and bonds.
It could provide capital for companies looking to expand into the continent and is rated as the easiest place to open a business among all the other BRICS countries.
That would make it the logical choice for firms to establish their headquarters in SA.
The country is already the services hub for the continent and has significant corporate clout in the global arena.
Where it falls short is on transport infrastructure, both within the country and linked to its African neighbours.
Nonetheless, SA’s place on the continent is seen as key to its debut in the Brics club this week at the meeting at a Chinese resort.
"We are not individually important enough but if we can fill the role of an entry point to Africa, it will be an enormous opportunity," says Absa Capital economist Jeff Gable.
Sub-Saharan Africa has become the second-fastest growing region in the world after Asia and has been more resilient to the global financial crisis then Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. It offers an untapped market of hundreds of millions of people.
Standard Chartered’s regional research head for Africa, Razia Khan, thinks that the summit is unlikely to come up with concrete measures that will immediately affect the Brics economies.
But some analysts are expecting preferential trade agreements and developmental finance deals, given the participation of state-owned financial institutions.
Iraj Abedian, chief economist for Pan African Capital Holdings, hopes that the Brics summit will establish a "credible institution" to underpin its political clout. If that does not happen, it will remain a political multilateral rather than an economic leadership forum, he says.
For another piece on BRICS see here.
