Predictions: The Next BRICs and EAGLEs

There is much debate about the economic or political merits of South Africa's invitation to join the BRIC group of countries. The term BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) was invented in 2001 by Economist Jim O’Neill, now the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. While path-breaking when coined, the concept of BRIC seems outdated today given increased growth differential among the four countries and given that the grouping is also not considered a structural concept since it depends on a country’s growth projections. 

Which countries were predicted to be the next BRICs? Goldman Sachs identified the Next 11 (N-11) countries that could rival the G7 over time, in the context of several important BRICs themes: energy, infrastructure, urbanisation, human capital and technology. The N-11 include Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. 

Meanwhile, a new group of countries have been coined EAGLESs by BBVA. The EAGLEs, which stands for Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies include the four giant economies (China, India, Brazil and Russia) but also six more countries, namely Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Egypt and Taiwan. 

BBVA has also identified the Next 11 Eagles which which have common characteristics with the EAGLEs and could be included if their growth prospects (already very positive generally) improved in coming years. The 11 countries in the Nest are: Nigeria, Poland, South Africa, Thailand, Colombia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Argentina, Peru and Philippines.

Some facts about the EAGLEs:

In terms of the criterion for inclusion, each of these ten countries are expected to contribute more to global GDP growth than the average of the countries which have long been considered the most relevant ones worldwide, namely the G7.

In other words, EAGLE countries are chosen because they will be the most relevant in terms of new generated business. The EAGLEs are expected to be responsible for 50% of all global growth in the next 10 years. That compares with 14% for the G7.

This is not only about China or the BRICS. The EAGLEs countries outside the BRICS will grow by almost 4 trillion the next decade, equivalent to 10% of world growth. That compares with 2.4 trillions for the aggregate of Japan, Germany, UK, France, Canada and Italy (six percent of world growth).

From an African perspective, Egypt appears to have made both lists (Next BRIC and EAGLE) while Nigeria was identified as a Next BRIC and potential EAGLE. Meanwhile South Africa was identified as a potential EAGLE but may now be the newest Member of the BRIC group.