Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Local Content and Joint Ventures

Over at This is Africa, this article proposes that by putting local content policies i.e. import substitution at the heart of development plans, governments in sub-Saharan Africa can make the most of their new found reserves e.g. oil, gas etc. My question; is this principle WTO compatible?

“Local content is the fastest, most sustainable way for the benefits of the oil and gas sector to accrue to a society,” says Kevin Warr, former head of the energy market development team at the US Agency for International Development. It guarantees jobs in the core sector – engineers, geologists, senior managers and the like – and stimulates domestic supply chains delivering everything from chemicals, boats and drills to catering, security and IT. In 2005, Royal Dutch Shell spent $9.2bn on goods and services from low and middle income countries. Chevron’s procurement reached $45bn worldwide in 2008.

Local content is not new to sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa’s post-apartheid Black Economic Empowerment programme, which offered preferential training and employment to black communities, was essentially a local content policy writ large. But formal legislation specific to oil and gas has picked up only recently. In 2003, the Angolan government passed a law requiring procurement of basic oil-related goods and services to be reserved for Angolan companies. A year later, Equatorial Guinea passed its own law addressing equity participation by nationals in international oil companies.

The full article can be assessed here.

Should we refer to this approach as local content, or joint venture policies? For instance China allowed foreign firms access the domestic market in exchange for technology transfer through joint production or joint ventures. In fact, 100% foreign owned firms were a rarity among the leading players in the industry. Most of the significant firms tended to be joint ventures between foreign firms and domestic (mostly state-owned) entities. See previous post on the role of joint ventures and investment in China's economic boom.

Sub-Saharan African Stock Markets

According to the IMF SSA Regional Economic Outlook 2010, the number of stock markets in SSA countries has risen from 5 in 1989 to 16 today and the market value, (market capitalization) has nearly doubled to 153 percent of GDP, before dropping to 83 percent of GDP in 2008 as a result of the global financial crisis.  While foreign capital flows have helped stimulate this growth, in most cases the markets remain too small and illiquid to attract significant foreign investment.

For instance, except for South Africa and Nigeria, the stock markets have few listed  companies.   South Africa has about 401 listed companies on its stock exchange while Nigeria has 202.  The next largest stock market according to the Report is in Kenya with about 51 companies. Meanwhile Malaysia has 1076 listed companies and Thailand 476.   Most other African countries have few listed companies, and at about 20 percent of GDP in 2008 (excluding South Africa), average market capitalization is lower than in most emerging markets.

Such low business volumes make it difficult to support a local market with its own trading system, market analysis, and brokers. The small size and lack of liquidity also deters foreign investors since the exposure of foreign institutional investors is typically negligible until a market reaches about $50 billion in size or $10 billion in shares traded annually.

Recommended reforms to increase stock market capitalization in SSA include:

     (a)  Improvements to the legal and accounting framework;
     (b)  Improved private sector evaluation capabilities;
     (c)  Increased public sector regulatory oversight;
     (d)  Appropriate sequencing of reforms;
     (e)  Good-quality institutions, such as rule of law, democratic accountability, and limited corruption, are important to reduce risk.
     (f)  The development of regional markets as a way to promote cost efficiency and overcome small market size.  

On the last recommendation, I should note that the Ivory Coast-based Bourse Regionale des Valeurs Mobilieres (BRVM) is the world's first regional stock exchange which serves the eight African members of the West African Monetary Union:  Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Cote d' Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. It is now entirely electronic with market offices maintained in each country. 


Do Strict BITS result in increased FDI?

A working paper by the WTO titled More Stringent BITs, Less Ambiguous Effects on FDI? Not a Bit!  asks the question: do host countries of foreign direct investment (FDI) gain attractiveness by granting more rights to, and offering better protection of foreign investors through firmer dispute settlement rights?

The research finds that stricter dispute settlement provisions in Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITS) does not necessarily result in higher FDI inflows hence the effectiveness of BITs as a credible commitment device remains elusive.

The document can be assessed here.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

East and West Africa World's Apart on Trade

East and West Africa may be on the same continent, just five hours flight from each other, and with complementary economies that would make it natural enough for a high level of interaction.
But, in reality, they are virtually cut off from one another.
With a combined population of two-fifths of a billion, and well-matched resources, East and West Africa have some of the lowest trade between them of any regions in the world, according to a UN report, with just one carrier running costly and often half-empty flights between the regions, no road route, and negligible traffic between the two continental hubs.
To fly to West Africa from East Africa costs twice or thrice as much as flying from Africa to Europe, including to London, which is eight and half hours away.
As example, flying to Dakar on economy and business costs $1,281 and $4,076 on Kenya Airways and is possible on three flights a week.
Read the full article here.

Technology and Innovation in Agriculture

The Technology and Innovation Report 2010: Enhancing Food Security in Africa Through Science and Technology and Innovation  looks at the current trend towards declining agricultural productivity in many developing countries, especially in Africa.  


1. The Report identifies key challenges in the growth of agricultural capacity. These include: 
(a) declining investment; 
(b) a lack of guaranteed land tenure and access to credit;
(c) isolation of small holder farmers; 
(d) inadequate adaptation to climate change; 
(e) lack of  high technology bio-energy solutions; 
(f) previous structural adjustment policies and 
(g) a lack of regionally relevant innovation priorities in agricultural research and innovation.  


2. To address these impediments, the key recommendations include to:
(a) Place smallholder farmers at the centre of policy;
(b) Strengthen policy maker capabilities;
(c) Target agricultural investment;
(d) Reinforce agricultural innovation systems by focusing on the enabling environment;
(e) Take into account local agro-ecological conditions;
(f) Explore the potential of global networks and value chains;
(g) Link national, regional and international agriculture research to innovation;
(h) Revitalize funding and strategies for research and development;
(i) Promote Linkages Within and Outside of the Agriculture Innovation System
(j) Engage in capacity building;
(k) International cooperation on technology transfer & technology sharing and
(l) Multilateral rule-making and policy space


The Report can be accessed here

Africa's Growth and Exports Spurred by Commodity Prices

According to the IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub Saharan Africa 2009, the strong average economic
growth of 6 per cent that Africa experienced in the five years, leading up to the 2008 economic crisis was underpinned by a spectacular increase in the continent’s trade in commodities whose prices increased significantly over the period 2007-8. 


The commodity prices which showed the highest increase are oil followed by metals. There was a less dramatic increase in the prices of cocoa, coffee, sugar, tea and wood.. 



Trade Between Africa and Trading Partners 1980-2008

Interesting illustration from the Africa Progress Report regarding percent (%) share of trade between Africa and her trading partners from the period 1980-2008.

In the almost 30 years illustrated in the chart; Africa's trade with the EU has continued to decline, from a high of 55% in the mid eighties to about 35% share of total Africa trade in 2008.

South-south trade with non African countries, has increased from a low of 8% of Africa's total trade to almost 30%. This increase is largely trade with Asia. See previous posts on
Africa Asia trade.

US Africa trade has declined compared to pre 1980 at 18% of total Africa trade. However since then, US Africa trade has been at a similar level at slightly over 10% since the mid 80's. See previous post on
US Africa trade.

Intra Africa Trade has risen from a low 3% to slightly over 10% of Africa's trade, however this has been hovering at a similar level since in the mid nineties.

It will indeed be a historic moment when Africa's trade with other developing countries outperforms colonial trade flows.

African Competition Program

UNCTAD last year launched the Africa Competition Programme (AFRICOMP), a capacity-building and technical assistance programme on competition law and policy for the African countries.

The objective of the Programme is to:
  • Assist African countries in formulating and enforcing competition law and policy.
  • Encourage partnerships between international organizations and agencies; and interaction with regional organizations and civil society
AFRICOMP emphasizes ownership by beneficiary countries and demand-driven technical cooperation and it seeks to establish closer links with the private sector and more especially with NGOs and local learning institutions.

Competitive markets drive an economy’s resources towards their fullest and most efficient uses, thereby providing a fundamental basis for economic development. In Africa, effective enforcement of a competition policy system is expected to facilitate the process by which innovative, cutting-edge technologies replace the usually less efficient productive capacities now in use in parts of the continent. The market forces are expected to continuously prod the local enterprises to innovate – that is, to develop new products, services, methods of doing business, and technologies – that will enable them to compete more successfully on national, regional and international markets.

UNCTAD provides competition authorities from developing countries and economies in transition with a comprehensive development-focused intergovernmental forum for addressing practical competition law and policy issues 

Competition resources can be accessed here.

2010 World Cup Broadcasting Rights

Interesting New York Times piece on world cup broadcast rights.

I noted that according to the sports research firm SportcalFIFA has generated over $2.15 billion revenue worldwide, from the sale of television rights for the 2010 world cup, an amount which is up 53 percent from the 2006 event in Germany, with a viewership of 26 billion.  

Fortunately, in Africa, FIFA and the African Union of Broadcasters have concluded a strategic cooperation agreement which ensures the distribution and broadcasting of all 64 FIFA World Cup matches live on free-to-air television and radio in 41 territories in English, French and Portuguese. The move has been welcomed by several African countries who cannot afford to pay the high prices for broadcast rights of the world cup. 


Broadcasting is an audio visual service classified under the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services as Communication Services (in the audio visual sub sector) while News Agency Services are a sub sector classified under the Recreational, Sporting and Cultural sector (see  WTO W/120). 


These services can be provided through mode 1 (cross border supply); mode 2 consumption abroad e.g. tourists travelling to South Africa to consume world cup related services; mode 3, commercial presence of a foreign entity; or mode 4- supply of a service through the movement of natural person (service provider) into a foreign market.

A list of FIFA’s global media rights licenses for the 2010 World Cup can be obtained here.

Hosting the 2010 World Cup: What does it take?

The 2010 FIFA World Cup fever in SA is high and I am compelled to comment on some legislative and economic aspects.  

South Africa will be the first African nation to host the world cup after the country won the all-African bidding process, beating Morocco and Egypt

In preparation for the world cup, the South African Government passed a comprehensive Act of Parliament termed the Special Measures Act of 2006, allowing the national state departments to mobilize and fully meet the 17 guarantees contracted by FIFA.  In addition the country has spent billions on infrastructure projects, transport, security, communication etc.

The newly mandated legislative environment provides assurances on:
• entry and exit permits by the Ministry of Home Affairs
• media centre(s) by the Ministry of Communications
• work permits by the Ministry of Home Affairs
• transport by the Ministry of Transport
• customs duties and taxes by the Ministry of Finance
• immigration, customs, check-in procedures by the Ministry of Home Affairs
• other taxes, duties and levies by the Ministry of Finance
• pricing policy by the Ministry of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
• safety and security by the Ministry of Safety and Security
• FIFA’s ownership of media and marketing rights by the Ministry of Communications and the Ministry of Trade and Industry
• bank and foreign-exchange operations by the Ministry of Finance
• exploitation of marketing rights by the Ministry of Trade and Industry
• telecommunications and information technology by the Ministry of Communications
• indemnity by the Ministry of Justice and Constitutional Development
• International Broadcast Centre by the Ministry of Communications
• national anthems and flags by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• medical care by the Ministry of Health. 

The trade guarantees by the South African government include intellectual property rights through the amendment of the Merchandise Marks Trade Act 1941. However, there have already been complaints regarding counterfeits and the International Authentication Association, expects that FIFA official suppliers may loose millions.

On taxes; FIFA, a Zurich based Association governed by Swiss law has been granted full tax exemption by the SA government.  The SA tax waiver termed a “tax bubble” , applies to custom duties, taxes, costs and levies on the import and subsequent export of goods belonging to the FIFA delegation, its commercial affiliates, the broadcast right holders, the media and spectators travelling to South Africa for the 2010 World Cup. However foreign soccer payers will reportedly not be exempt from the standard 15% tax to the South African Revenue Service and ticket sales will have 14% VAT applied.

FIFA , has been referred to as a charity by the International Tax Association, and recently was the subject of debate in the Swiss Parliament following a proposal to terminate FIFA’s tax free status in Switzerland. 

Meanwhile the Brazilian government, which has already been awarded the opportunity to host the 2014 World Cup, has reportedly agreed that FIFA and its partners can be exempt from taxes on any goods and services related to the tournament for five years; from January 2011 until the end of 2015.